What Is The Future of Work?

A brief summary on how technology and industry are impacting how we work and the topics we'll cover under the paid subscriber section, The Future of Work

The following briefly introduces the topic, The Future of Work. The Future of Work section in Sunday Letters is reserved for paying supporters and reports on the current trends, research and commentary on the subject. By using the same technology I will write about, ironically enough, I will be scanning the internet to bring you the latest news and research on how technology is changing our world. It matters because technology has become ubiquitous in life, and arguably, it already consumes us in both work and broader contexts. We actively use it for things like finding directions, planning our day, ordering a pizza, or even writing an article. Still, it also operates passively in the background shaping our thinking, attitudes and beliefs. Our entire sense of being, and even more so for younger generations, appears inseparable from it.

We only have to look at the gulf in proficiency and application of technology between our parents and our children. Some older generations barely grasp how to use a touch screen. In contrast, our children are almost entirely technologically literate right out of the cot. Mobile devices have replaced pacifiers (dummies or soothers) as the parental tool of choice for keeping our kids quiet, which worries me. New parents appear to accept these technologies with little or no question about their negative impact. Our world is changing increasingly rapidly, and technology, in the hands of those who pursue power and control, is the driver. And like hand-in-glove, we adopt these new ways of living.

By its very nature, industry is competitive, and whatever organisation gets ahead of the rest in the AI race will essentially rule the market and perhaps the world. And it’s becoming increasingly likely that governments may no longer hold a veto. This technology race has an inherent risk, given that we don’t always know how things will change. The approach has always been to roll it out and see what happens…we can fix things later. But this may not be a wise approach this time, given that we really don’t know what’s inside the AI box. Its creators don’t know how it learns and may be unable to stop it once it gets going.

Technological Complexity operates exponentially, and predicting the outcomes of higher-order complex systems is impossible. This is due to the number of independent variables in the system and their corresponding interdependence. We’re not dealing with simple hydraulic models of reality any longer. For example, building a new contraption one hundred years ago would have brought about a resultant but limited negative impact on jobs. Take the trade of the Cooper; aluminium kegs, in this case, did away with a centuries-old trade, but the negative implications arguably didn’t extend much further than the trade itself. Today’s advancements in technology, however, are likely to have a much broader and more profound effect.

We must find stability and certainty before technological advancement gets too far ahead of us. The problem is that powerful organisations are pushing forward, and human cognition and our problem-solving ability are more limited than the rate of change. AI language models, for example, operate and learn much faster than humans. Although their capacity is limited at present, some suggest their rate of development poses a significant risk. The Future of Life Institute wants the industry a pause on AI projects. But I’m not sure that the slow-down will come quickly enough, or even at all, and my position is more pessimistic than optimistic.

There will undoubtedly be benefits to humanity in this AI technological revolution, but the downside might well be harsh and painful for many. We’ve got to remember that the first ones out of the war zone, the first ones into the bunker, will be the ones with the most power and influence. Ordinary people and the poorest of those will suffer the most.

“Powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive and their risks will be manageable.”

The Future of Life Institute

What Is The Future of Work?

The Future of Work refers to the changing nature of work and employment as advances in technology, automation, and artificial intelligence promise to deliver increased efficiencies to our lives. Although, this sounds more like a sales pitch than a reality. It includes predictions and discussions on how these changes will affect society and the welfare of people, industries, job markets, and the skills needed for employment now and in the future. No corner of our world will be left unaffected, and change is already happening. Our local pharmacy, for example, uses a robot to retrieve prescription medicine from the shelves. “Chip” is a bit of a celebrity, with local kids regularly visiting the pharmacy to see him in action. That’s one less local person employed. But on the positive side, Chip doesn’t need breaks, won’t be out sick, won’t be late for work, and has reduced errors in fulfilling prescriptions to practically zero.

The development of AI, robotics and automation is a natural progression from the division of labour; the splitting of complex productive tasks into several specialised, more straightforward tasks made famous through early advances in industrialisation. Frederick Taylor and Henry Ford were two of its earliest advocates. Some experts predict that with continued simplification of complex tasks, automation will lead to increased job loss, decreased income and deepening social inequality. Others believe it will lead to new opportunities and increased innovation and productivity. Whatever the actual outcome, society needs to prepare. With no work available, what will millions of people do with their time? How will they earn? How will they live, survive, and even thrive? Our relationship with work used to be vocational, but through Capitalism, it has become transactional. Even so, we derive our sense of worth, value and social contribution from our work; what would millions do without it?

I’m pointing at a catastrophic scenario, but the future of work doesn’t need to play out this way. You and I don’t need to sit and wait for it to happen, either. That’s where the concept of commanding one’s own work and teaching it to others comes in. It starts with you and me.

Future of Work Topics

Articles and essays on the future of work will go out on Fridays, and some of the key topics that we will discuss will include the following:

• Automation: Advances in technology and automation are leading to increasing numbers of jobs being replaced by machines and software. This will likely impact the job market significantly and could lead to significant job displacement in certain industries. However, it is also possible that automation will lead to new job opportunities and increased productivity.

• Artificial Intelligence: Artificial Intelligence and machine learning are rapidly advancing and are expected to impact people's future working lives significantly. AI is already used to automate many tasks, most notably in organisations such as Amazon, and will continue to augment human capabilities. This will profoundly impact the job market, economy, and society.

• Remote work: The COVID pandemic accelerated the trend towards remote work, and many companies will likely continue to allow employees to work from home. However, this has led to a blurring of the line between personal and working life. The way we live and work will continue to change as a result, but it may also present new opportunities for people who live in areas with a high cost of living.

• The Gig Economy: The gig economy is a labour market that relies heavily on temporary and part-time workers rather than permanently employed staff. Gig workers are said to gain flexibility and independence from this kind of work, but they sacrifice job security. There are also pros and cons for organisations, but essentially, it’s to their advantage. We’ll look at how this situation may change in the future.

• Skills & Learning: As the nature of work changes, many of us will need to develop new skills to remain employable or work for ourselves. This will include new technical skills and soft skills such as critical thinking, problem-solving, and creativity. As such, how we educate our children will need to change drastically.

• Good Work: As The Institute For The Future of Work outlines, Good Work is central to personal and collective well-being and flourishing. Research suggests good work is major to meeting socioeconomic challenges and building strong, resilient communities. Good work is more than employment. It promotes dignity, autonomy, and equality; work with fair pay and conditions, where people are inadequately supported to develop their talents and have a sense of community.

• Alternative Futures of Work: It won’t be all bad, and rather than presenting a dystopian future, future of work content will also cover future possibilities with a rosier look. We will explore how technological advances can help us reverse the damage to the environment, clean up our act, and develop a more socially oriented perspective on work.

The Future of Work will be published on Fridays, and if you’re already subscribed to Sunday Letters, each issue will land in your inbox. Each piece will include some commentary from me and links to resources, research papers, news and other material on the future of work. I hope to see you here.